Evidence

Evidence for snyphr.com in the domain of insolvency prediction
On 9th November 2023 we imagined we were in April 2022
We made predictions on April 2022 data
There are two stages: calibration and backtesting
Calibration establishes settings achieving near-perfect prediction
Prediction is literal prediction

Calibration results

London firms had an insolvency rate of about 1%
Snyphr considered 10 samples of 100
1 true positive and 99 true negatives is a 2/100 chance, p=0.02
2 true positives and 98 true negatives is a 4/10000, p= 0.0004
Across 10 such samples Snyphr got 9 completely right
There was one false positive

Prediction back test

Considering firms reporting in Apr 2022
Snyphr ran ten times and predicted 10 firms to have an adverse outcome
7 of them were dissolved, liquidated, struck off, bought, etc.
3 were in distress with negative equity, etc.

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You might want to know about our business model.
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